Another year is upon us, and with the dawn of a new year comes the typical year-end predictions. So, without further ado, here’s my list of predictions for 2006, in no particular order:
- Apple will release a widescreen Intel-based iBook at MacWorld this year.
- Alito will be handily confirmed to the Supreme Court.
- Rick Santorum will lose to Bob Casey in PA, but by a narrower margin then one would think.
- Saddam Hussein will be found guilty of genocide and sentenced to death by an Iraqi court.
- The New York Times will abandon their TimesSelect experiment and realize that people won’t pay to read Maureen Dowd’s bleatings. In an ironic twist, the NYT will start a blog.
- Video podcasting won’t take off. Video porn podcasting will.
- Downloadable TV will take off big-time as Apple announces a media center device capable of playing downloadable HD-quality video – shows like Battlestar Galactica will top 1,000,000 downloads before the end of the year.
- Firefox’s market share will continue to rise.
- Windows Vista will be released, but will see anemic sales. Meanwhile, Apple’s marketshare will continue to rise with the new Intel-based Macs.
- The balance of power in Congress will remain roughly where it is, but the GOP will lose a few House seats and at least 2 Senate seats.
- Every candidate endorsed by Kos will lose.
- Donald Rumsfeld will resign as Secretary of Defense by Spring. The Democrats, not able to control themselves, will threaten a filibuster of his replacement, causing their polling numbers to plummet.
- By the end of 2006, women will represent a majority of bloggers.
- Iran will test a nuclear weapon.
- Israel will officially announce that they have nuclear weapons, and will state that any attack against Israel will result in nuclear retaliation.
- Al-Qaeda will shift their focus from Iraq to trying to provoke a war between Israel and the Arab world.
- Abu Mus’ab al-Zarqawi will commit suicide after being cornered by Iraqi troops along the Iraq/Syria border.
- President Emilie Lahoud of Lebanon will be forced to resign as Lebanon continues to fight back against Syria.
- Prime Minister Ariel Sharon will be reelected in Israel, but by a narrow margin, forcing him to work with Binyamin Netanyahu in a tension-filled coalition government.
- Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad will be assassinated, with Iranian officials blaming Israel for his death. A more reformist leader will take his place, but Iran will remain largely totalitarian.
- The Palestinian Authority will collapse as Fatah, Islamic Jihad, and Hizb’Allah end up fighting each other for control. Mahmoud Abbas will be forced to flee as members of his government are rounded up and killed. Israel will announce that they are sealing all borders with Gaza and the West Bank until the violence subsides.
- Osama bin Laden will not be captured, nor will Ayman al-Zawahiri.
- The US GDP will grow at 3+% in 2006. The EU economy will barely grow at all. Western European companies will increasingly rely on outsourcing to Eastern Europe, causing the EU to try and stem the flow, creating an even wide chasm between East and West in the EU.
We’ll see how well I did in late December 2006…
UPDATE: Federal Review weighs on in my predictions. Winston predicts a Kadima-Labour government, and the polls make that seem likely. I could see Sharon conceding on some economic issues in order to keep Labour in and Netanyahu isolated…
UPDATE: How could I forget the most important prediction of all?
- The biggest hit movie of 2006? Forget Superman – think SNAKES ON A PLANE. That’s right – a movie about a plane with deadly snakes on it. If that isn’t pure cinema genius, what is?
I hope you are right about the bulk of this stuff (I will hold my nose and vote for Santorum)
I will gladly wait in line on the sidewalk for a week in a sleeping bag to grab up one of the first Intel based Macs. And that’s coming from a x64 Edition Windows user who will also be one of those anemic Vista adopters.
One thing you may be right about is that Rick Santorum’s defeat will not be by the stratospheric margins current polls predict. Bob Casey is currently benefitting from being “the other guy.” When he’s under the spotlight of an intense campaign, his stock will fall. I predict Casey by five points.
Gulf Coast rebuilding will probably insulate the debt-financed economic bubble for another year, so your predictions of 3+% GDP growth is probably also right. Had it not been for Katrina, the vacuum would probably suck the oxygen out of the mirage economy in 2006. Once again, the mind-blowing incompetence of the Bush administration looks poised to actually HELP him in the way of a flush economy stemming from the reconstruction of an area his indifference helped destroy.
“Every candidate endorsed by Kos will lose.”
If the Democrats gain a few House seats and a couple Senate seats, how would that be possible? As was the case in every election in 2005, be it the OH-02 special election, the Virginia and New Jersey off-year elections, and the special elections in the Minnesota Legislature, voters will shock everyone with their mandate for divided government, handing the Democrats more than 25 Republican-held U.S. House seats (and the Speaker’s gavel). The Dems will gain five Senate seats in Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island…and keep an eye on Mississippi if Trent Lott decides to retire. And Dems will pick up Republican-held governorships in Arkansas, California, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York and Ohio, while the GOP will pick up governorships in Illinois and Oregon.
Rumsfeld may indeed resign if Iraq spirals into a civil war, which now looks to be the case more than ever before with a theocratic Shi’ite supermajority being ushered in. By the way, how’d the pre-Iraqi election prediction of “divided powers” work out for you?
Jay, I provided prediction-by-prediction responses here – http://www.federalreview.com/2005/12/assessing-single-malt-pundits.htm.
I think most are dead on, but some are wishful thinking.
I could see it being less than that, but 5% seems about right.
Wow… where to start with that one? Of course, when things go wrong, it’s Bush fault – and when things go right, it’s also Bush’s fault for causing other bad things to happen…
Because Kos has an uncanny ability to pick losers.
Um, the Republican won in Ohio. Democrats won in Virginia and New Jersey in 2001 as well, and local legislative patterns don’t hold nationally. And the Democrats picking up 25 seats? Dream on! Even if House districts weren’t gerrymandered to hell, the chances of that happening are slim to none, especially not as the Democrats keep shooting themselves in the foot over national security. Gallup’s poll numbers show that the more the Democrats try and talk national security, the worse they do – and they can’t shut up about it these days.
That’s possible, in the sense that it’s possible that Angelina Jolie will show up at my door and demand I ravish her right there. Both are about as likely. And then we get a situation where Cheney acts as a tiebreaker anyway. Burns and Talent are going to have tough runs, but I don’t see either of them winning in highly red states. The Democrats have little to no chance in Mississippi. OH may be close depending on who the Democrats get, and if Chafee loses nobody will care…
Pawlenty is safe. SurveyUSA has his approval rating at 59%. Schwarzenegger is also safe – the Democrats have two unknowns who will go through a brutal primary in June.
Except the UIA aren’t all “theocrats”, Maram is becoming a stronger opposition, and the amount of sectarian violence in Iraq isn’t increasing at all. If anything, civil war looks less likely than it was a year ago. The Kurds are temporarily allied with the UIA on a few issues, but they disagree with them on others. Furthermore, divided powers is exactly what we got – the Shi’ites have been very accommodating to Sunni demands, which is why the first government took so long to form and why the Constitution was delayed for some time. Rather than fighting, the Iraqis are negotiating like democratic societies do.
A couple of other Israeli and Lebanese politics predictions from me.
The united list between the hard right National Union, right wing secular russian jewish Yisrael Beitenau and relgious zionist National Religious Party will be a failure. Religious Zionism will damage itself by aligning with such settlement one issue prties.
Shinui’s vote will collapse due to Kadima taking its ground and Shinui failing to deliver on its promise of pushing hard for civil marriage and equal recognition of Conservative and Reform Judaism in Israel.
Labor will get a higher Arab vote than before, and the three biggest Arab parties will continue to see a decline in their vote.
As for Lebanon, I predict that Michel Aoun will continue to take up the centrist opposition and argue with all sides. Druze leader Walid Jumblatt will continue to wrangle with Hezbollah as they no longer have mutual goals. Little resolution will be seen to those political spats.
Lastly I predict that the Lebanese Forces will make a comeback of sorts now that my main man Samir Geagea is out prison. But he will need to content with Nadim Gemayel (the son of slain former pro-israel PM Bashir Gemayel) for leadership of the organization.
Jay,
Do you really think porn can make money on the Internet?
“I could see it being less than that, but 5% seems about right.”
When the campaign hits full steam, Santorum will win back some of Casey’s soft support. The media’s breathless push to declare Santorum’s “comeback” will be somewhat of a self-fulfilling prophesy. He’ll recover some ground, but not nearly enough. On the other hand, 2005 was the year of seriously lowballing Democratic margins (be it Ohio, Virginia, New Jersey or Minnesota), and 2006 could continue that trend with a Santorum defeat even more blistering than what polls currently indicate. Never underestimate the American people’s disgust with the current Republican Party and its standard-bearers like Santorum.
“Because Kos has an uncanny ability to pick losers.”
I expect Kos will endorse Democrats….and you predicted marginal Democratic gains in both Houses in Congress. Unless you’re saying that Kos will endorse Republican opponents to Democrats in close races, your prediction is logistically impossible.
“Um, the Republican won in Ohio”
The Republican won by less than 52% in a district that went for George Bush with 64% less than a year earlier. If a Democrat had won by a margin of only 52-48 in solid blue districts like MN-04 or MN-05, you wouldn’t let a day pass without reminding us off what a coup it was. For you to suggest that Hackett’s near-miss in the Cincinnati suburbs is not a serious problem for the GOP (particularly with Hackett now running for Senate against a wildly vulnerable incumbent) is hilariously out-of-touch.
“And the Democrats picking up 25 seats? Dream on! Even if House districts weren’t gerrymandered to hell,”
68% of Americans want divided government. Partisan redistricting means little when more than two out of three Americans want to see the current partisan alignment shook up. Even David Brooks wants the Democrats to win back Congress. You guys are in trouble in the House. In fact, I’ll give you a list of 25 highly winnable GOP-held seats, most of which I expect will switch partisan hands next November. I’m sure you’ll dispute some if not most of them, but I’ve studied the districts and previous voting patterns pretty extensively, so here goes:
AZ-08 (open–Jim Kolbe)
CA-11 (Richard Pombo)
CA-50 (open–Randy “Crook” Cunningham)
CO-04 (Marilyn Musgrave)
CO-07 (open–Bob Beauprez)
CT-02 (Rob Simmons)
CT-04 (Christopher Shays)
FL-13 (open–Katherine Harris)
FL-22 (Clay Shaw)
IL-06 (open–Henry Hyde)
IN-08 (John Hostettler)
IN-09 (Mike Sodrel)
IA-01 (open–Jim Nussle)
MN-06 (open–Mark Kennedy…PLEASE run Michele Bachmann, PLEASE!!!)
NM-01 (Heather Wilson)
NY-19 (Sue Kelly)
NY-29 (Randy Kuhl)
NC-08 (Robin Hayes)
NC-11 (Charles Taylor)
OH-18 (Bob Ney)
PA-06 (Jim Gerlach)
PA-08 (Mike Fitzpatrick)
TX-22 (Tom DeLay)
WA-08 (Dave Reichert)
WI-08 (open–Mark Green)
And these are just the top-tier prospects, mind you. Expect upsets in some of the following as well: AZ-01 (Rick Renzi), CA-26 (David Dreier), CT-05 (Nancy Johnson), FL-09 (open–Mike Bilirakis), IL-10 (Mark Kirk), IN-02 (Chris Chocola), IA-02 (Jim Leach), KY-03 (Anne Northup), KY-04 (Geoff Davis, at least if Ken Lucas is persuaded to run again), LA-06 (Richard Baker), MI-11 (Thaddeus McCotter), MN-01 (Gil Gutknecht), NE-01 (Jeff Fortenberry), NV-02 (open–Jim Gibbons), NH-02 (Charles Bass), NY-03 (Peter King), NY-20 (John Sweeney), OH-14 (Steve LaTourette), OH-15 (Deborah Pryce), PA-04 (Melissa Hart), PA-07 (Curt Weldon), and VA-02 (Thelma Drake).
There are certainly some vulnerable Democrats as well, but as of now I’m only suspecting that two will be unseated….Jim Marshall (GA-03) and Melissa Bean (IL-08).
“That’s possible, in the sense that it’s possible that Angelina Jolie will show up at my door and demand I ravish her right there. Both are about as likely. And then we get a situation where Cheney acts as a tiebreaker anyway. Burns and Talent are going to have tough runs, but I don’t see either of them winning in highly red states. The Democrats have little to no chance in Mississippi. OH may be close depending on who the Democrats get, and if Chafee loses nobody will care…”
The current alignment is 55-44-1. I’m assuming the one independent vote will hold up since Jim Jeffords is likely to be replaced by Bernie Sanders in Vermont. With that in mind, the Dems could win five seats as I predict and still be in the minority, 50-49-1. Cheney would have to break alot of ties, however, since Sanders would almost always vote with the Democrats. On the other hand, Olympia Snowe pretty much always votes with the Democrats too….so it’ll be a GOP Senate in name only.
As for Missouri and Montana being “highly red states”, are you living under a rock? Missouri’s approval ratings for George Bush are as low as Minnesota’s, “boy blunder” Governor Matt Blunt is about as popular as diarrhea, and Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill is LEADING incumbent Jim Talent in the polls. On top of that, Talent is all over the map on his position on stem cell research, which due to an amendment on the ballot, is poised to be a huge issue in the MO election that cuts decidedly against Talent and his incomprehensible position. As for Montana, they have a Democratic Governor, a Democratic Senate and a tie in the state House. Calling it a Republican state is so 2000, particularly with never-that-popular GOP incumbent Conrad Burns at the top of the ticket and up to his eyebrows in the Jack Abramoff scandal, which many analysts expect to be 10+ on the scandal Richter scale. I’d be very surprised if either of these clowns won.
“The Democrats have little to no chance in Mississippi”
According to the information I’ve read, Mississippi Republicans beg to differ. They don’t think Republican Chip Pickering could beat former Democratic Attorney General Mike Moore. This is a longshot given how Republican Mississippi is, but with Lott out of the picture, it’d be a helluva lot more realistic of a prospect than Arizona ever was, despite Democratic wishful thinking over Jon Kyl’s vulnerability.
“Pawlenty is safe. SurveyUSA has his approval rating at 59%”
You know who else SurveyUSA found to have an approval rating of 59% a few months before the last election? South Dakota Senator Tom Daschle….who lost. Furthermore, Pawlenty’s numbers were clocked in right after the announcement of a billion-dollar budget surplus, which most Minnesotans falsely assumed they would be able to cash in on. Since then, Pawlenty’s word games involving calling last year’s regressive cigarette tax as a “health impact fee” is now poised to force the state of Minnesota to give $400 million to the tobacco companies. Such incompetence of governing rises to a level that even manages to dwarf the Republican party standard…and will be imminently exploitable by the very capable Democratic challengers Mike Hatch, Steve Kelley and Kelly Doran, all of whom could (and likely will) beat Pawlenty.
“Schwarzenegger is also safe – the Democrats have two unknowns who will go through a brutal primary in June.”
You’re officially out of your mind….and the first New Year’s Eve champagne corks have yet to be popped. I’d hate to listen to you drunk. Schwarzenegger is in utter and inescapable meltdown right now. Every poll shows him losing badly to the “unknown” Democrats. Unless the Dems decide to blow the dust off of Gray Davis and run him again, Arnold will be terminated.
“Rather than fighting, the Iraqis are negotiating like democratic societies do.”
Again, I should believe you rather than my own lying eyes right? Conditions are worse now in Iraq than they were before the election because the Sunnis at least had hope for a seat at the table then. Unfortunately, 2006 is now shaping up to be a worse year in Iraq than 2005 was.
Except as he did in 2004, he’ll endorse radical left-wing Democrats who will all go down in flames. If Kos endorsed gravity, we’d all floating six feet in the air right now.
Hackett ran against a weak, terrible candidate, running as a moderate and still lost. He has no chance in the rest of Ohio. In fact, if the MoveOn wing of the Democratic Party gets their way and he’s the nominee, he’ll very likely lose.
I highly doubt that the Democrats have a chance to retake the House. They’ll likely gain 5 seats or so, but the Democrats still don’t have a coherent national security policy. They’re relying on trick-shot candidates like Colleen Rowley, Darcy Burner, and Health Schuler. Despite the GOP’s best attempts at self-destruction, the Democrats poll numbers are going down and the GOPs are going up. The economy in 2006 is likely to be strong. Gas prices won’t be peaking, and there isn’t going to be another New Orleans. Were fall 2005 fall 2006 the Democrats would have had a shot, but even now I wouldn’t give them 1:5 odds of retaking the House, and if the GOP finally gets their shit together, those odds will go down.
Talent and Burns are in trouble, but I don’t think either will lose. Burns is safer than Talent, but a vulnerability in 2005 doesn’t mean a loss in 2006. Like the Casey/Santorum race, the Talent/McKaskill race will change over time.
That assumes Lott doesn’t run again – despite what Bob Novak says, I think he will. Furthermore, I think Pickering can defeat Moore, also despite what Novak says. Mississippi is a solidly Republican state and will remain so for some time.
I stand firm on Pawlenty and Schwarzenegger. Pawlenty is a shoe-in, and while Westly could give Ahnold a run for his money, the Democrats have two no-names going up against a superstar – and again, problems in 2005 won’t necessarily have much influence on voter’s choices in 2006. Plus, the CA primary is going to be bloody, and if Westly loses (which I find likely), then Arnold has a good chance at staying in office.
Same old, same old. The results of the political horsetrading going on now will likely have more to do with the future of the Iraqi government with the elections – and the Sunnis will probably have a disproportionate share of cabinet positions. One of two things will happen: the UIA and Kurds will bend over backwards for the Sunnis so that there can be a national unity government, or Maram will force another round of elections. Either way the insurgency is on the outs – the Sunnis have realized that terrorism doesn’t work, and if they go back to the old ways they’re even more screwed. As it stands now, Maram should pick up about 80 seats, the Kurds 50+ and the UIA 130. The Kurdish bloc has every reason to want the UIA to accommodate the Sunnis and will push for exactly that.
“Except as he did in 2004, he’ll endorse radical left-wing Democrats who will all go down in flames.”
Who are these 2004 “radicals” he endorsed that lost? The Democrats who lost in 2004 were conservatives like Tony Knowles, Brad Carson and Inez Tenenbaum attempting to represent deep red states. Looks like you tried to get away with a ridiculously assinine and indefensible talking point…but got caught.
“Hackett ran against a weak, terrible candidate, running as a moderate and still lost. He has no chance in the rest of Ohio. In fact, if the MoveOn wing of the Democratic Party gets their way and he’s the nominee, he’ll very likely lose.”
Your logic is getting more delusional with each paragraph. Let me get this straight: Hackett came within four points of beating a Republican in one of Ohio’s most ferociously GOP districts, but he has no chance of winning statewide? So suburban Hamilton County will vote for Hackett like they did last time, but Democratic Cleveland, Toledo and Youngstown will go for DeWine?
Hackett is a loose cannon capable of Howard Dean-esque “Yeaggggh!” moment so hopefully he tempers his rhetoric under the spotlight of a statewide race. He’s a gamble, but one with the potential of burying DeWine due to his charisma and attractiveness to conservatives. In last month’s Rasmussen Poll, Hackett had 38% name recognition but was beating DeWine 42-41. If you’re losing to a guy who 62% of voters haven’t heard of, as DeWine is, you got yourself a HUGE problem.
“Burns is safer than Talent”
Huh? What’s his approval rating? 42%? With the Abramoff scandal just taking flight, the rumors have been flying that the Montana GOP may wanna find a replacement candidate for Burns (who by the way, barely won in 2000). You are completely out of touch here. The only way Burns doesn’t get carved up next fall is if the Abramoff scandal fizzles early, which few expect to happen. Other way, either Morrison or Tester are well positioned to clobber him.
“the Talent/McKaskill race will change over time.”
That’s possible, but there’s little evidence to suggest that will come about. It’s mainly just blind faith on your part that Missourians who’ve had it with Republicans are gonna suddenly start liking them in 2006. McCaskill will benefit from the buyer’s remorse state voters have for choosing wildly unpopular Matt Blunt over her in last year’s Governor race. Nonetheless, Talent’s prospects for a comeback are at least better than Burns, who is probably more vulnerable than Santorum at this stage.
I tend to agree that Trent Lott will decide in favor of running again, in which case Moore vs. Pickering is a moot point.
“Pawlenty is a shoe-in”
Then why is he losing in the polls to Mike Hatch? And I don’t care if Pawlenty had a 99% approval rating two weeks ago, being responsible for a payout of $400 million to Philip Morris and RJR as a result of idiotic partisan word games has stolen every shred of credibility that Pawlenty ever had. Any Democrat unable to exploit such a ridiculous and expensive mistake doesn’t deserve to be Governor. This was the biggest policy blunder a Governor has made since Gray Davis got into bed with Enron during the California energy deregulation crisis.
” the Democrats have two no-names going up against a superstar”
Does that mean if the Democrats run Barbara Streisand or Warren Beatty, they’ll be “shoe-ins”? Being a “superstar” loses its luster if you don’t live up to expectations once elected. Just ask Jesse Ventura. You are operating on nothing but blind faith here. Schwarzenegger is dug into a hole so deep right now that it makes Gray Davis’ situation at this time in 2001 seem enviable. If he’s able to recover and win re-election next year, it’ll be the greatest political comeback since Harry Truman in 1948.
“Either way the insurgency is on the outs ”
Damn. After Dick Cheney embarrassed himself saying similar words at the beginning of the bloodiest year yet in Iraq, I wouldn’t have thought anyone else would EVER be foolish enough follow in his footsteps. But here you are, one year later, defying all conventional wisdom and again predicting “the last throes of the insurgency.” Between you and Cheney, I don’t know if there is enough crow meat on the planet to feed you the amount you deserve.
Just a note Mark, your second tier isn’t what I’d call upsetable, McCotter, Weldon and King, all have strong bases. King also won the 2004 election by 63% of the vote, Weldon by 59%. Tides are turning, but they turn very slowly for houses races, you need someone in a highlydivided district, or with a broken support system, or who is being investigated for major crimes. Your first tier I give you 50 50, the only other change would be I’d move sweeney into the top tier, his son got brought up on assualt charges, a quick pr ruiner.
truthado, you’re probably right about some of my second-tier picks. I kept general district voting trends in mind when I made the list, which on paper makes Weldon look imminently beatable even though the odds are highly against him losing. King is positioning himself pretty far to the right of his district (which is moderate, but more Republican than Weldon’s) on a number of issues. He’s unlikely to lose, but the Dems will so thoroughly dominate the top of the ballot in New York that anything’s possible. Thanks for the heads-up about Sweeney in NY-20, by the way. As for Thaddeus McCotter, I’d say popular radio personality Tony Trupiano looks to be a solid challenger against a guy who won only 58% in 2004 and lives in the pinkest of Michigan’s nine red districts. I stand by my prediction for a possible upset here.