Debate Liveblogging III

I’m getting ready to liveblog the debate. I have a nice Coalition of the Filling dinner made, Aussie win, Italian tomato sauce, Israeli olive oil, and good old South Dakota semolina pasta. We’ll see what’s more invigorating – the dinner or the debate.

Expectations are running high for this one. The election could hang on what happens here, and a lot of people are predicting that Bush will get caught short again. Remember, though, Bush campaigned in 2000 on domestic issues, and he did surprisingly well in the last debate on those issues – perhaps even better than he did with foreign policy. I don’t think Bush is at quite the disadvantage that some think.

Also, over at Red State, see why I think Bush will win this election. A bad debate performance could still torpedo Bush, however, which is why Bush still has to be on the top of his game. Then again, despite Kerry’s reputation as a good closer, Bush is also one of the best closers, and he’s run in tight races before. My spidey sense says this would be a good night for Bush – we’ll see if my instincts were right in about two hours.

*7:52PM CST:* The First Ladies have taken their seats. My first glass of wine is down the hatch. It’s game time.

*8:01PM CST:* While we’re waiting, I will say that Stephen Greene has the tastes of a college student… vodka and tacos?

And now we’re ready to begin. The candidates are now taking their podiums. Bush looks rather happy, as does Kerry. Neither have particularly nice smiles – in fact, both are ghastly.

*8:03PM CST:* Question for Kerry on homeland security and safety. Bush better knock this out of the park.

Kerry says we must be as safe as secure as we were before September 11. Then he gives the usual spiel about the war and the usual litany of facts about cargo containers (anyone verify this?) and airplane cargo holds. Then the usual empty promises about hunting down the terrorists and a claim to Reagan. Same old same old.

Bush responds. He stresses staying on the offense. The key to winning this debate is tying that spread of liberty across the Middle East to safety. He keeps touching on this, but he needs to make it very clear. He seems a bit too happy about Afghanistan. He also hits on Kerry’s comments this weekend – I’d stress that again about.

And Kerry responds with the Osama lie. *Why doesn’t Bush nail his ass on it? You do not let Kerry get by with this crap!*

Bush is really animated tonight. He needs to make this clear: Kerry thinks this is a law enforcement issue, and Bush thinks it is a war.

*8:09PM CST:* Oddball question on flu vaccine to Bush. Bush seems a bit caught off guard from this. Exactly why is this a political issue? And now he changes the subject to litigation. Normally I’d nail him on it, but this is such a dumb question I don’t think anyone can fill two minutes talking about something that takes 20 seconds. If I were Bush, I would have stopped talking about 90 seconds ago.

Kerry seems caught off guard by this as well, and he immediately changes the subject to health insurance. Yes, he didn’t answer the question, but unlike Bush, Kerry took the question and decided to use the time to say something worthwhile. Things like this are why Kerry’s the better debater.

Wait, what was the question again?

Bush gets a chance to rebut. I like the line about “bait and switch.’ However, the FEHBP (I believe that’s the acronym) is a good plan, and can be run well. Kerry’s plan, however, is notl.

And Blue Cross/Blue Shield suddenly gets free national advertising…

*8:13PM CST:* Shieffer talks to him about taxes. Kerry talks about PAYGO budgeting. Now, this is the one area where I agree totally with John Kerry, but Kerry throws it away with the usual litany of figures – almost all of which are dodgy.

Does Kerry know that the fiscal discipline of the 1990s was thanks to the Republican takeover of 1994?

Kerry’s gestures are still as distracting. He’s giving us another litany of various programs and speaking way to fast. It’s a classic debater’s tactic, and I always hate it. I want a clear proposal, not a shotgun approach.

Bush gets to rebut, stressing once again the Kerry record. He needs to use the “l” word. Nice line about PAYGO, even though I think those rules make sense for federal budgeting. Bush’s record on fiscal sanity isn’t good – Kerry’s is abysmal.

*8:18PM CST:* Schieffer asks a question about outsourcing. Bill Clinton would have loved this question. Bush could have used some more empathy on this question. I think one of Bush’s problems in these debates is that he’s been coached to be more wonky. Bush isn’t a wonk, while Kerry is an uber-wonk. Bush needs to reach out to people, not give more lists of proposals. Bush is much better than he was in the first debate, and he’s animated, but he hasn’t wowed me yet. Then again, Kerry is just as bad.

Kerry nails Bush for moving from jobs to education. Damnit, Mr. President, don’t let a liberal like Kerry get away with claiming to be a paragon about fiscal sanity. Hell, even Kerry got off a joke in this one.

*8:21PM CST:* The question is about techological change leading to a loss of jobs. Kerry admits that he can’t stop outsourcing. At least he’s being honest here.

Did Kerry just use the word “nanosecond”?

Bush gets to rebut: where the hell you start with all that? Bush talks about Pell Grants and tax cuts. I think Kerry’s plan here is barrage Bush with facts and figures to get him off topic. Bush has a way of sounding too defensive, it’s been a trend through all three of these debates so far.

Bush once again hits on Kerry’s record. His line about Ted Kennedy being the conservative Senator from Massachusetts could have been a good line, but he blew it.

*8:26PM CST:* Shieffer asks Bush if homosexuality is a choice or not? What the hell kind of a question is that? Bush launches into his talk about gay marriage – this is a winning issue for Bush. Gay marriage may be inevitable at some point, but it’s wildly unpopular. Bush should be stressing this issue as much as he can, and he does a passable job of it.

Kerry: we’re all God’s children. I’m not so sure about Michael Moore. Kerry brings up Cheney’s daughter again – that seems rather gratuitous to me. Kerry once again tries to straddle the line on this issue. This is one of the areas where I also have some agreement with Kerry on visitation rights and such, but I’m not entirely sure DOMA will stand.

*8:29PM CST:* Shieffer gives a softball to Kerry on Catholicism. Here’s a point where I can’t stand Kerry. The Catholic faith teaches respect for life – that isn’t something that isn’t defined only for Catholics, but for all human beings. If you believe marriage is between a man and a woman, then those values should be in law. If you believe life begins at conception, then you have the moral obligation to defend it.

Kerry as an altar boy… why do I have trouble seeing this?

Bush should have been able to hit this one out of the park. Once again, his answer seems scattershot and defensive. He just isn’t a good debater.

*8:33PM CST:* The question is on health care costs. Bush hits on the main issue here about third party health care buying. Milton Friedman has a great line about this kind of spending – Bush should have stolen it. When you spend other people’s money on other people, who the hell cares about quality or price? That’s why medicine is so expensive, and that’s why government spending in general just doesn’t produce quality results.

Bush’s line about information technology seems like a non sequitor to me.

Kerry once again blames everything on Bush, and makes some other absolutely ridiculous assertions and outright lies. Mr. President, now would be time to just state “There he goes again, Bob.” If only Bush had the oratorical skills of Reagan, Kerry would be toast right now.

Kerry claims to have written 56 bills… of course, they’re not under his name. Good God, why does he get away with this shit?

*8:38PM CST:* Sheiffer gives Kerry a nice question that elucidates all his plans for him. Why doesn’t he give him a sloppy wet kiss right here and now? Typical for CBS.

Kerry makes the claim that his healthcare plan is not a government plan – then he tells us that the government will take over the plan. He claims that the federal government will take over children’s Medicare, then the states will take it back. Kerry is the consummate politician. His claims don’t make a damn bit of sense, but he seems to believe his own bullshit.

Bush was just about to nail CBS… and he folded. Look, right now the audience has no idea what the hell Kerry was talking about – why doesn’t Bush stop trying to engage Kerry on the same ground and shift the ground to the basics. Bush tries to do this, but he fails. Reagan was a master of this – and that’s why he was the Great Communicator.

Kerry claims Bush hasn’t fully funded the VA – a 30% increase isn’t full funding?!

At least Bush nails Kerry on his VA funding lie. I’d mention that veterans support Bush by overwhelming numbers.

*8:44PM CST:* The question is about Social Security. Another question worded as to put Bush on the defensive. If I were Bush, I would have not held back on kicking CBS’ ass.

Bush needs to make it clear: for younger workers, Social Security is a lie. If we don’t do something, I would have been better off taking every cent I’ve put into Social Security and throwing it away. We have to introduce choice into the system and make it perform better. Why hasn’t he hit on his ownership society theme?

And Kerry once again spouts the same old BS. There would not have to be a cut in benefits, and the transitional money would be made up in the back end. And now Kerry is claiming to be a fiscal conservative. And of course, Bush lets him get away with it.

*8:47PM CST:* Sheiffer mentions that Social Security reform is a necessity. Finally a decent question. We have not fixed Social Security. It’s a Ponzi Scheme. It works as well as Nigerian email plan.

Kerry mentions that Greenspan supports the Bush tax plan. Is this a smart thing for Kerry to have done? If I were Bush, I’d take that and run with it. Then again, Bush keeps pulling his punches here.

And he doesn’t.

*8:52PM CST:* The issue is on immigration. Bush takes the liberal position, and Kerry takes the tougher position. Immigration is not a winning issue for Bush, and Bush just lost a chance to look tough.

On jobs, the President completely changes the topic to education. It’s a complete dodge of the question, and transparently so. Bush is getting schooled here. It doesn’t help that Sheiffer is helping Kerry with his question – not that it’s necessary at this point.

If this weren’t a wartime election, Bush would be screwed.

*9:01PM CST:* The issue is abortion. Again, the battle lines are drawn on this issue, and nothing the candidates say will change that. Kerry did come out for abortion, which may hurt him with Catholics.

*9:04PM CST:* Another nice softball for Kerry. Again, we get the assertion that Kerry will double the Special Forces – why doesn’t Bush nail him on this as well?

Bush reminds people of his trip to Bangor, Maine. That was a great moment for Bush – the GOP should have used it in an ad.

The debate is shifting to foreign policy. Now finally Bush gets to the meat of this election.

Kerry claims that he hasn’t proposed a global test. Um, we all heard him say it.

Bush nails Kerry for voting against the first Gulf War. That’s a devastating fact, but Bush should have brought it up in the first debate.

*9:09PM CST:* The question is on the assault weapons ban. Bush should nail the assault weapons ban for being nothing but window dressing – and noting Kerry’s earlier photo op with a gun that would be banned under that law.

Kerry finally brings up his time as a prosecutor. This is something that Kerry should have brought up instead of Vietnam. Kerry assertion about terrorists buying weapons at gun shows is both absurd and devastating for Bush. Too bad he doesn’t have a chance to rebut – not that he would anyway.

*9:11PM CST:* The question is about affirmative action. Kerry defends it and launches on the usual litany of how the Bush Administration has done everything wrong.

And Bush launches into education… again. Yes, Mr. President, education is important. No, it is not the answer to everything.

So far it’s Kerry lying through his teeth, Bob Scheiffer tossing softballs to Kerry, and Bush floundering. So much for my spidey-sense.

*9:15PM CST:* Sheiffer ask a question about Bush’s faith. Another question designed to put Bush on the defensive. Why not just let Kerry ask the questions?

On the other hand, this is an opportunity for Bush to appeal to evangelicals. He is doing well on this question. At the end of the day, I think Bush’s idea that freedom is divinely ordained – it’s one of the founding principles of this nation.

Native Americans gave Kerry a blessing? They must have mistaken for a totem pole – he’s wooden and multi-faced.

Of course, after I insult him, Kerry comes back with a very good answer. The thing that is so infuriating about this debate is that what Kerry says is pure BS, but he presents it in such a way as to put Bush on the defense and appear almost Presidential. It’s all sophistry, but very good sophistry.

*9:20PM CST:* Kerry knows he’s winning this – he’s bringing up Bush’s post-9/11 performance. He even helps Tom Daschle by bringing up the infamous hug of Bush.

He talks about partisanship here. It isn’t the Republicans portraying their opponent as a Nazi and a terrorist. But once again, Bush won’t call him on it.

And Kerry talks about campaign finance reform. Care to start with MoveOn.org, Senator?

Bush gets a chance to rebut. Bush brings up McCain, which is nice, and he’s trying to stress Kerry’s weakness on Iraq. It’s true, but it’s too late.

*9:23PM CST:* The question is about the candidates wives. It’s a fluff question. Both candidates get a chance to appear human. Bush’s laugh is a annoying, and we all know that Bush doesn’t have a good command of the English language – we’ve had 90 minutes of it.

Kerry gets in a laugh here. Teresa Heinz Kerry is a nightmare of a candidate’s wife – which is why Kerry makes a quick joke of her before talking about his mom.

Fox just panned to Teresa Heinz Kerry – she looks pissed. Someone’s sleeping on the sofa tonight.

*9:26PM CST:* Kerry gets his closing statement. Kerry’s now calling for unity with the country. He’s making an appeal to a less partisan time. He also makes his obligatory reference to Vietnam. It’s a good speech, but there’s something missing here. More on that later.

Bush’s closing speech. Finally Bush gives a good speech. Too bad those themes of optimism versus pessimism were absent througout this debate. This is where Bush should have been at the beginning.

More analysis later, although it’s pretty clear from my comments where I think this went.