I’m going off on a limb and predicting that John Kerry is going to lose, and lose big. My gut instinct reasons are spelled out in this RedState piece as well as some new numbers from the LA Times that backs that theory up.
For the record, I think that the Swift Boat ads aren’t the reason that Kerry’s starting to lose what little momentum he had. I think it’s his reaction to those ads that damned him. Whining is not Presidential. Sending a disabled vet as a surrogate to make a point and waving him around like a bloody shirt is not Presidential. The Swift Boat attacks could have very easily backfired and hurt Bush, which is why the campaign distanced themselves from it so categorically and quickly. However, because of Kerry’s petulant reaction, the issue has become a weight around his campaign.
UPDATE 08/29/04 – It looks like Stephen Greene has the same numbers as I. The current electoral map is the same one I’ve had virtually since the beginning, which makes me think that the Electoral College picture isn’t going to change much – and I’m betting if it does, it will be in Bush’s favor.
Here are my predictions for the state of the election. We’ll start with the red states. These states are part of “Bush Country” – they aren’t changing and represent 181 electoral votes for George W. Bush. Included are the southern and Rocky Mountain states that are traditional GOP strongholds. Kerry’s liberalism will curry no favor with the voters of these states, and these states traditionally vote Republican by wide margins.
Now let’s add to this list the states that are likely to end up on Bush’s corner in November. This includes the Mississippi states south of Iowa. While the polls show a close race in these states, I don’t really see Kerry taking these states away from Bush any time soon. The same applies to Arizona, where recent polling has shown a healthy Bush lead. Kerry could conceivably poach Arizona from Bush, but it’s rather unlikely. This will give Bush 222 electoral votes – not enough to win, but close.
Now we’ll do the same for Kerry. Kerry has the Northwest corridor almost entirely in his pocket. New York won’t vote for a Republican unless Manhattan sinks into the sea before November and even then Bush would have a tough time. Ditto the Left Coast, where Kerry holds significant leads in all three Pacific Coast states. Yes, the GOP would love to get within striking distance of California, but that isn’t going to happen even with the Governator’s backing. These states are safe Kerry states. Illinois is also a very safe Kerry state, especially with Alan Keyes heading into political oblivion.
We can also add in the states where Kerry is very likely to win. As much as the GOP would like Minnesota and Iowa to go towards Kerry, I don’t really see that happening – although I wouldn’t entirely rule them out. New Mexico was close in 2000, although I have a feeling that it will go in Kerry’s direction. However, the Greens are strong in New Mexico and that could pull votes from Kerry. In all these cases, despite the possibility of an upset, I see Kerry as being very likely to take these states.
Now here’s where I start going off on limbs. This election will come down to Florida and Ohio, and possibly West Virginia. I’m predicting, and have for some time, that Bush will carry all three of these states. The polls showed the Bush/McBride race in Florida as being exceptionally tight, but Jeb Bush pulled off a convincing win. I’m predicting that Florida is going to go towards Bush, especially considering that the GOP is concentrating heavily on this state. It’s not a given, but with all the factors involved in this race, Bush has a strong shot. The latest Rassmussen Florida tracking poll also shows a healthy Bush lead, although I find daily tracking polls to be rather inaccurate by virtue of their limited sampling.
The same applies for Ohio and West Virginia, both states that have lost jobs in the manufacturing slowdown. Kerry is hoping that his economic protectionism will curry favor with Rust Belt voters, but I don’t see that happening. In heavily Democratic Youngstown, Mayor George M. McKelvey has endorsed President Bush. Kerry’s positions on abortion and national defense go against the social conservatism of these rust belt states. Especially given Kerry’s attempts to straddle the anti-war line, his economic positions can’t make up for the ground he’s lost on other issues.
Not only that, but manufacturing jobs are slowly beginning to recover, and in West Virginia coal mines are beginning to hire new workers. If the economy continues to recover as most analysts believe, the job market will continue to improve and Bush’s standings will likewise increase. The price of fuel could slow manufacturing growth, however, which is why Bush would be wise to show why drilling for oil in ANWR would not only decrease fuel prices, but can be done in an environmentally sound manner. Kerry’s anti-drilling stance can hurt him in these states.
Between social issues, national security, and an improving economy, I see Bush taking those critical swing states by narrow margins, yielding a result of 274 electoral votes to Kerry’s 264, and ensuring a Bush win:
However, in recent days, I’ve revised my prediction somewhat (the 274-264 figures are nearly the same as they have been throughout this cycle – most states are not going to change from 2000). I think Bush has a great shot of winning Wisconsin, a state he very narrowly lost in 2000. While the manufacturing slowdown hit this state hard, unemployment is down signficantly across the state. Wisconsin’s unemployment rate is a low 4.7%, significantly less than the national average. The losses in jobs are mainly around the heavily Democratic Milwaukee area where the old manufacturing base hasn’t managed the transition to the service economy as well as other major cities. The economy in Wisconsin suffered greatly between 1999-2003, but the rosier outlook today will likely help Bush in this state. Given that factor, I can see Wisconsin shifting to a red state this year:
This would give Bush 284 electoral votes to John Kerry’s 254. If Bush wins Wisconsin, he could also lose Nevada and West Virginia and still win by the same margin as my Prediction #1. With the closeness of those two states, expect Wisconsin to be a major battleground state between now and Election Day.
All in all, I think the political landscape is tilted in Bush’s favor. John Kerry has reached his nadir. His reaction to the Swift Vet controversy has eroded his numbers with independents and Democrats. He’s riding the wave of the “Anybody But Bush” movement, but negative political movements don’t work in American politics. Voters need someone they feel comfortable voting for rather than voting against. At the end of the day, Kerry just isn’t an appealing candidate. He lacks the dynamism that marks an effective candidate, and even if he wins the debates on substance he’ll lose on likability. The Democrats started this race in a weakened position and they nominated one of the weakest candidates they’ve run in a national election since Dukakis. Even Gore performed better in 2000.
This is George W. Bush’s race to win or lose. If he can reassure the American people on Iraq and the economy, he’ll win by a convincing margin. I see the possibility of Bush getting a narrow majority in the popular vote to be quite strong. I’ve predicted for some time that Kerry’s support will dramatically erode on Election Day as those members of the “Anybody But Bush” camp simply stay home. When 20% of moderate to conservative Democrats are Bush supporters, it’s clear that Kerry has not solidified his base in the way that Bush has. It’s one thing to hate Bush. It’s another to go to the polls and vote for John Kerry. If anything, I think Kerry’s flip-flops on the war will be a boon to the leftist third party candidates like Cobb and Nader who have stood against the war from the beginning. The radical anti-war left may hate Bush, but they’re not going to vote for a candidate who has stated he’d vote for the war again if given the chance.
Can Bush screw things up and lose? Absolutely? Can Kerry pull ahead and whip Bush in the debates? Of course. Are those things likely? I don’t see it that way. I don’t see much possibility of a Kerry landslide at this point. While the conventional wisdom is that undecideds break for the challenger, I don’t think we’ll have very many undecideds by Election Day, and many of them will end up breaking for Bush.
I won’t pick popular vote numbers quite yet, although I have an idea what I think they’ll be. In any event, we’ll see how close I was on November 3rd…
Wow, Jay I can’t see how YOU would come to that conclusion. We’ll be sure to hold you to that statement if you turn out to be wrong. Are you going to start taking bets now?
I would actually bet that he is pretty damn close in his prediction..
In my defense, the last three elections I’ve predicted have all gone exactly as I predicted they would. In fact, in 2002 I underestimated the GOP’s margin of victory. In 2003 I managed to get the CA recall vote right (although I was dealing with percentage ranges which gave me quite a bit of wiggle room). The last election I predicted was the Diedrich/Herseth race and I managed to hit the exact spread, something that almost no other predictions had done.
Doesn’t mean I’m right this year, and things could change, but I’m guessing I’m not too far off again.
In fact, in 2002 I underestimated the GOP’s margin of victory.
That’s still off, though. I wouldn’t try to hold that up as evidence of predictive power.
And then there was that iPod Mini thing… 😉
To get back to the article, how exactly, in your view, should Kerry be reacting? It seems that, no matter what he does, you people are going to spin it as unpresidential.
Sitting there and taking it like a bitch? Unpresidential. Fighting back by exposing Bush’s smear tactics for what they are? Unpresidential. Substantiating his side of the story and exposing the Swift Vets as liars? Oh, that’s an unpresidential lack of respect for veterans.
Let’s look at Bush for a moment. I’d say that promoting these cowardly, surrogate attacks and construing any possible response by Kerry as “unpresidential” is pretty damn unpresidential.
even if he wins the debates on substance he’ll lose on likability.
Well, I’m glad you finally admitted that you support the candidate of no substance. Truly, there’s no rational reason for you to support Bush; it all stems from your irrational and immature hatred of Kerry.
First of all he should never have made events of 40 years ago in a divisive war the centerpiece of his campaign. He had to have known that the Swifties were out there, and he had to have known that a large segment of Vietnam vets hate him with a passion for his Winter Soldier testimony. It was a politically boneheaded move.
Once faced with the charges, he should have dismissed him. Yes, Republicans would still harp on him, but its voters that matter. I’m not going to vote for Kerry, so no matter how much I may bitch at him for his actions 40 years ago it doesn’t matter.
What Kerry did endangered his position with swing voters by firing back. Sending Cleland was the most idiotic piece of political theater I’ve seen. Every time you bring up a charge, the media is going to report on it. Hell, if Kerry had ignored the whole thing it might have gone away on its own. Better yet he could have just dismissed it and moved on to other issues. In fact, pretty much every strategy other than trying to smear the Swifties would have been better than whining to the FEC and begging to have the book pulled.
Which is exactly why Bush didn’t do any of those things. Bush has said that he does not wish to make Kerry’s service an issue and that they do not approve of any of the 527 groups. Bush hasn’t promoted these attacks, nor has he called Kerry “unpresidential”.
Bullshit. I said no such thing.
If there is any candidate who lacks in substance, it’s Kerry, who can’t even decide what his position is on one of the biggest issues in this campaign. Bush’s policies are substantial and supported, even when his ability to elucidate them is not.
If you have to mischaracterize my argument to make a point, you might as well give up right now.
What, in your opinion Jay, has solidified Bush’s base? In my view, there have been many decisions that he has made that could divide the republican base (aka: spending).
The latest Rassmussen Florida tracking poll also shows a healthy Bush lead
A two-point advantage in a poll with an MOE of +/- 4.5% is considered a “healthy lead”? Interesting interpretation.
After your latest post on Bush’s campaign shift into a higher gear, I think you are right. Their timing was pretty good too, having allowed Kerry to dig his hole just deep enough to start driving nails in his coffin.
I agree…Kerry is looking weak, wimpy, and even cowardly.
The way he used Cleland in his PR stunt was really amazingly stupid…I think after the election many political experts will analyze Kerry’s handling of the Swift Vet issue as a textbook case of what not to do…and a classic case of really screwing up. I think they will look back at this dumb PR stunt as a laughable act…shoot, now already people are ridiculing it.
What Kerry did endangered his position with swing voters by firing back.
So he’s just supposed to look like he’s the GOP’s bitch?
C’mon, Jay. Drop the horseshit. You know as well as I do that if he’d just ignored the attacks, you would have construed that as weakness, and so would most people.
Which is exactly why Bush didn’t do any of those things.
Oh, please, Jay. This is exactly what they did to Max Cleland and John McCain. As people are discovering, this is exactly how the Bushes run an election.
I agree…Kerry is looking weak, wimpy, and even cowardly.
And just ignoring the Swift Boat Liars would have made him, in your view, look different?
I don’t get it. If he takes it like a bitch, he’s a wimp. If he fights back, he’s a wimp. The inconsistency here is sickening, and again, I’ll reiterate that it stems from nothing but an immature hatred of John Kerry.
The way he used Cleland in his PR stunt was really amazingly stupid…
The way Bush ran from the issue like a scared little girl was what I found amazingly stupid.
That’s a very good question.
To be honest, I think it’s Kerry. A lot of Republicans are mad at Bush for his betrayal of some conservative positions. I think that while Republican support for Bush is strong, a lot of people are going to vote for him based on the fact that the Democrats have failed to provide an alternative. I’ve always said that a Joe Lieberman would have won in a landslide as a lot of Republicans would vote for him.
If Kerry had presented a real alternative and had been able to show voters that he has what it takes to be President, this election would be over and Bush would be toast. But I think the Kerry campaign is collapsing over the Swift Boat issue, and it’s starting to show in the polls.
If Bush can do what Kerry did not and reassure his base and appeal to swing voters, I think we’ll see a Kerry collapse in September and a widening of the race. Then again, that means that Bush will have to give the best speech of his life, and that’s one tall order for him.
I’m so sick of this flip-flopping on the war crap. This whole reputation has been spread by the GOP smear machine (and fox news) by a series of misquotes, over-simplifications, clever editing and lies.
Kerry DID NOT declare himself the “anti-war” candidate and he DID NOT say we would have invaded Iraq. Listen to the actualy quotes, not the edited versions… he said the president should have the authority, but the president should also not abuse that authority.
He only voted against the ‘87 billion’ thing out of protest because the republicans votes against his version of the bill that funded it differently. (Note: the republicians voted AGAINST the bill before they voted FOR it. Flip Flop?)
I don’t mind people disagreeing with my viewpoint but when people clearly twist the issues like this it hurts the whole processes. You guys need to have the courage to recognize what Kerry ACTAULLY SAYS and then debate it. Don’t fall victim to the talking points and edited movies on Bush’s website.
Finally, everyone says Kerry should give a firm YES or NO to the war in Iraq. Well, I hate to break this to you but sometimes things aren’t that simple. I realize President dumbass can’t comprehend anything more complex than a YES/NO answer but I’m sensing you guys aren’t that stupid.
You made a mistake listing Colorado under Bush country. Look at the polls, dead heat right now. That right there is a flaw in your theory. But I think I see a bigger flaw — you are depending on several polls from the LATIMES, legendary for being the least reliable major polling organization.
Calling a race this close before labor day is pretty brave. Kerry won’t bring out his big guns until after labor day. The whole dynamic of the race will be changed when Soros & Moveon’s millions are unleashed at that time (with the cooperation and amplification from the liberal media).