It’s become a tradition for me to do some predictions for the coming New Year. So, here’s my list of things that I think will happen in 2004. At the end of the year, we’ll see how I did…
* Howard Dean wins the primaries in Iowa, New Hampshire, narrowly wins in South Carolina, and sweeps up on Super Tuesday, leaving the other Dems in the dust.
* Ronald Reagan dies. Howard Dean says some exceptionally unkind things about Reagan to the press and turns off the female vote, crippling his campaign.
* Dean picks Al Gore Bob Graham as his running mate. (Yes, I know I’m already changing my mind… however, this one makes more sense in the end.)
* By Election Day, the NASDAQ will be over 2,500 and the Dow will be over 12,500.
* The 2004 Olympics in Greece will see a major terrorist event caused by lax security.
* Israel will complete the security fence, despite cries against it. Suicide bombings will drop dramatically.
* Yassir Arafat will die suddenly, causing a Palestinian Civil War which ends with Hamas taking control of the Palestinian leadership. Any hopes for the "road map" will be dashed, and Palestine will degenerate into virtual anarchy.
* Hackers will break into an e-voting system and try to change votes from Bush to Dean, causing a major scandal that forever tars electronic voting.
* Al Sharpton will run as a third-party candidate and take significant chunks of the black urban vote from Dean.
* The 2004 campaign becomes one of the dirtiest in history, thanks to groups like MoveOn.org.
* The Iranian theocracy collapses due to a massive popular revolt.
* Bush will win the Presidency by a large margin of the popular vote and a tall margin in the Electoral College (more election predictions later.)
* Syria announces it will unilaterally remove its WMD programs in the face of increasing US pressure.
* Pakistan and India continue their raproachement over Kashmir despite assassination attempts on both leaders. Musharraf and Vajpayee win the Nobel Peace Prize for their work.
* Mobile blogging will take off as cell phones begin to support blog updates. (This is already possible, in fact.)
* Linux will become an increasingly common corporate desktop, causing Microsoft to cut prices dramatically.
* Apple will announce cheaper mini-iPods in January priced around $150. Sales will go through the roof, sending Apple stock through the ceiling.
* Recordable DVD/PVR devices will become the hot gadget of the year as they begin to fall in price. Ad-skipping and time shifting will cause more advertisers to move to product placements in shows that can’t be skipped.
* I’ll finally release version 1.0 of BloGTK.
To dream…the impossible dream.
Bush winning by a wide margin? Sharpton taking away the black urban vote from the Dem nominee? Bush not making any insanely stupid remarks while campaigning (a la “there ought to be limits to freedom” from 2000)? Keep on tilting at them windmills, Jay.
The Sharpton prediction is a wild one, but Bush winning by a significant margin keeps getting more and more likely.
Wow.
Seriously, Jay, you’re deluisional if you don’t think this will be down to the wire.
Everybody keeps saying that this is going to be a close election and the country is divided and yada, yada, yada. The country is far less divided than it was four years ago (or eight years ago for that matter). There was a recent Pew Research survey that showed that republicans have gained the plurality of voter ID in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Washington, Oregon, and Michigan. Republicans have made gains in California and Florida among others. Combine that with the fact that Dean is going to win the nomination, the electoral landscape looks bleak for the democrats.
What happened?? Stupid ass predictions!! Amateurs!!!
Florida will go to Kerry and he will be the next President.
FYI. Just because Arnie winning in California had nothing to do with Republicans gaining in Cali. It had to do with people getting pissed off at politicians.